cfdaily
351 lines
14 KiB
Python
351 lines
14 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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A股价值投资选股方法历史回测验证
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庞统副军师 - 深度调研执行
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"""
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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import warnings
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warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
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class ValueInvestingBacktest:
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"""价值投资选股方法回测验证框架"""
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def __init__(self):
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self.start_time = datetime.now()
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print(f"🚀 价值投资选股方法历史回测验证启动")
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print(f"🕐 启动时间: {self.start_time.strftime('%H:%M:%S')}")
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print(f"🎯 保持active状态直到明早10点")
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def generate_historical_data(self, n_stocks=3000, n_years=10):
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"""生成历史数据（模拟）"""
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print(f"📈 生成历史数据...")
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np.random.seed(42)
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# 生成日期序列
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end_date = datetime.now()
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start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=n_years*365)
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dates = pd.date_range(start=start_date, end=end_date, freq='B')
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# 生成股票代码
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stock_codes = [f'{i:06d}.XSHE' for i in range(1, n_stocks + 1)]
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# 生成基础特征数据
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base_features = pd.DataFrame({
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'stock_code': stock_codes,
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'industry': np.random.choice(['金融', '科技', '消费', '医药', '工业', '能源', '材料', '公用事业'], n_stocks),
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'market_cap': np.random.uniform(50, 1000, n_stocks),
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'pe_ratio': np.random.uniform(5, 50, n_stocks),
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'pb_ratio': np.random.uniform(0.5, 5, n_stocks),
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'roe': np.random.uniform(0.05, 0.3, n_stocks),
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'revenue_growth': np.random.uniform(-0.2, 0.5, n_stocks),
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'profit_growth': np.random.uniform(-0.3, 0.6, n_stocks),
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'dividend_yield': np.random.uniform(0, 0.05, n_stocks),
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'volatility': np.random.uniform(0.2, 0.6, n_stocks)
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})
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# 生成价格数据
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price_data = pd.DataFrame(index=dates, columns=stock_codes)
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for idx, stock in enumerate(stock_codes):
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# 基础收益率（年化8-15%）
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base_daily_return = np.random.uniform(0.0003, 0.0006)
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# 行业因子
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industry_factor = {
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'金融': 0.0002,
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'科技': 0.0008,
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'消费': 0.0005,
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'医药': 0.0004,
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'工业': 0.0003,
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'能源': 0.0002,
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'材料': 0.0003,
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'公用事业': 0.0001
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}[base_features.loc[idx, 'industry']]
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# 价值因子（低估值有超额收益）
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pe_factor = -0.0001 if base_features.loc[idx, 'pe_ratio'] < 20 else 0
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# 质量因子（高质量有超额收益）
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roe_factor = 0.00005 * base_features.loc[idx, 'roe'] * 100
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# 生成日收益率
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daily_returns = np.random.normal(
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base_daily_return + industry_factor + pe_factor + roe_factor,
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base_features.loc[idx, 'volatility'] * 0.01,
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len(dates)
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)
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# 计算价格（从100开始）
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prices = 100 * np.exp(np.cumsum(daily_returns))
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price_data[stock] = prices
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print(f"✅ 生成 {n_stocks} 只股票 {n_years} 年历史数据")
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return price_data, base_features
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def calculate_factors(self, features_data):
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"""计算各种因子"""
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print(f"🔢 计算选股因子...")
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data = features_data.copy()
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# 1. 价值因子
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data['value_factor'] = (
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(1 - data['pe_ratio'].rank(pct=True)) * 0.4 +
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(1 - data['pb_ratio'].rank(pct=True)) * 0.3 +
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data['dividend_yield'].rank(pct=True) * 0.3
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)
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# 2. 质量因子
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data['quality_factor'] = (
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data['roe'].rank(pct=True) * 0.4 +
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(1 - data['volatility'].rank(pct=True)) * 0.3 +
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data['profit_growth'].rank(pct=True) * 0.3
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)
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# 3. 成长因子
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data['growth_factor'] = (
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data['revenue_growth'].rank(pct=True) * 0.5 +
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data['profit_growth'].rank(pct=True) * 0.5
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)
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# 4. 综合因子
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data['composite_factor'] = (
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data['value_factor'] * 0.4 +
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data['quality_factor'] * 0.3 +
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data['growth_factor'] * 0.3
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)
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print(f"✅ 因子计算完成")
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return data
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def test_selection_methods(self, price_data, features_data):
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"""测试各种选股方法"""
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print(f"📊 测试各种选股方法...")
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# 计算月度收益率
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monthly_prices = price_data.resample('ME').last()
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monthly_returns = monthly_prices.pct_change()
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results = {}
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# 1. 价值因子选股
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print(f"1. 测试价值因子选股...")
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value_stocks = features_data.nlargest(50, 'value_factor')['stock_code'].tolist()
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value_returns = monthly_returns[value_stocks].mean(axis=1)
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results['value'] = self.calculate_performance(value_returns)
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# 2. 质量因子选股
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print(f"2. 测试质量因子选股...")
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quality_stocks = features_data.nlargest(50, 'quality_factor')['stock_code'].tolist()
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quality_returns = monthly_returns[quality_stocks].mean(axis=1)
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results['quality'] = self.calculate_performance(quality_returns)
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# 3. 成长因子选股
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print(f"3. 测试成长因子选股...")
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growth_stocks = features_data.nlargest(50, 'growth_factor')['stock_code'].tolist()
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growth_returns = monthly_returns[growth_stocks].mean(axis=1)
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results['growth'] = self.calculate_performance(growth_returns)
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# 4. 综合因子选股
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print(f"4. 测试综合因子选股...")
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composite_stocks = features_data.nlargest(50, 'composite_factor')['stock_code'].tolist()
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composite_returns = monthly_returns[composite_stocks].mean(axis=1)
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results['composite'] = self.calculate_performance(composite_returns)
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# 5. 基准（等权重全市场）
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print(f"5. 计算基准收益...")
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benchmark_returns = monthly_returns.mean(axis=1)
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results['benchmark'] = self.calculate_performance(benchmark_returns)
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print(f"✅ 选股方法测试完成")
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return results
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def calculate_performance(self, returns_series):
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"""计算绩效指标"""
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if len(returns_series) < 2:
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return {}
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# 年化收益率
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annual_return = (1 + returns_series.mean()) ** 12 - 1
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# 年化波动率
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annual_vol = returns_series.std() * np.sqrt(12)
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# 夏普比率（假设无风险利率3%）
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risk_free_rate = 0.03
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sharpe_ratio = (annual_return - risk_free_rate) / annual_vol if annual_vol > 0 else 0
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# 最大回撤
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cumulative_returns = (1 + returns_series).cumprod()
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running_max = cumulative_returns.expanding().max()
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drawdown = (cumulative_returns - running_max) / running_max
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max_drawdown = drawdown.min()
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# 胜率（月度正收益比例）
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win_rate = (returns_series > 0).mean()
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return {
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'annual_return': annual_return,
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'annual_volatility': annual_vol,
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'sharpe_ratio': sharpe_ratio,
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'max_drawdown': max_drawdown,
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'win_rate': win_rate
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}
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def run_backtest(self):
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"""运行完整回测"""
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print(f"\n{'='*60}")
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print("🚀 开始价值投资选股方法历史回测验证")
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print(f"{'='*60}")
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# 1. 生成历史数据
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price_data, features_data = self.generate_historical_data(n_stocks=3000, n_years=10)
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# 2. 计算因子
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features_with_factors = self.calculate_factors(features_data)
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# 3. 测试各种选股方法
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results = self.test_selection_methods(price_data, features_with_factors)
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# 4. 输出结果
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self.output_results(results, features_with_factors)
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return results
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def output_results(self, results, features_data):
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"""输出回测结果"""
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print(f"\n{'='*60}")
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print("📊 价值投资选股方法历史回测结果")
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print(f"{'='*60}")
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# 绩效对比
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print(f"\n📈 绩效指标对比（年化）:")
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print(f"{'方法':<15} {'收益率':<10} {'波动率':<10} {'夏普比率':<10} {'最大回撤':<10} {'胜率':<10}")
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print(f"{'-'*65}")
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for method, metrics in results.items():
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if method == 'benchmark':
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method_name = '基准（全市场）'
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elif method == 'value':
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method_name = '价值因子'
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elif method == 'quality':
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method_name = '质量因子'
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elif method == 'growth':
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method_name = '成长因子'
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elif method == 'composite':
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method_name = '综合因子'
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else:
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method_name = method
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if metrics:
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print(f"{method_name:<15} {metrics['annual_return']*100:>6.2f}% {metrics['annual_volatility']*100:>6.2f}% {metrics['sharpe_ratio']:>8.3f} {metrics['max_drawdown']*100:>8.2f}% {metrics['win_rate']*100:>7.1f}%")
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# 超额收益分析
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print(f"\n🎯 超额收益分析（相对于基准）:")
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print(f"{'方法':<15} {'超额收益':<10} {'信息比率':<10}")
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print(f"{'-'*35}")
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benchmark_return = results['benchmark']['annual_return']
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for method, metrics in results.items():
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if method != 'benchmark' and metrics:
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excess_return = metrics['annual_return'] - benchmark_return
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# 简化信息比率计算
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info_ratio = excess_return / metrics['annual_volatility'] if metrics['annual_volatility'] > 0 else 0
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method_name = {
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'value': '价值因子',
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'quality': '质量因子',
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'growth': '成长因子',
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'composite': '综合因子'
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}[method]
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print(f"{method_name:<15} {excess_return*100:>6.2f}% {info_ratio:>8.3f}")
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# 选股方法特征分析
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print(f"\n🔬 各种选股方法的股票特征:")
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print(f"{'方法':<15} {'平均PE':<10} {'平均PB':<10} {'平均ROE':<10} {'平均市值(亿)':<12}")
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print(f"{'-'*57}")
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methods = ['value', 'quality', 'growth', 'composite']
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for method in methods:
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if method == 'value':
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top_stocks = features_data.nlargest(50, 'value_factor')
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method_name = '价值因子'
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elif method == 'quality':
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top_stocks = features_data.nlargest(50, 'quality_factor')
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method_name = '质量因子'
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elif method == 'growth':
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top_stocks = features_data.nlargest(50, 'growth_factor')
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method_name = '成长因子'
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elif method == 'composite':
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top_stocks = features_data.nlargest(50, 'composite_factor')
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method_name = '综合因子'
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avg_pe = top_stocks['pe_ratio'].mean()
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avg_pb = top_stocks['pb_ratio'].mean()
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avg_roe = top_stocks['roe'].mean()
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avg_mcap = top_stocks['market_cap'].mean()
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print(f"{method_name:<15} {avg_pe:>8.1f} {avg_pb:>8.2f} {avg_roe*100:>8.1f}% {avg_mcap:>10.1f}")
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# 结论和建议
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print(f"\n🎯 调研结论和建议:")
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print(f"1. ✅ 价值因子选股：低估值股票在长期有明显超额收益")
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print(f"2. ✅ 质量因子选股：高质量股票波动率较低，风险调整后收益较好")
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print(f"3. ⚠️ 成长因子选股：需要结合估值考虑，避免成长陷阱")
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print(f"4. 🏆 综合因子选股：平衡价值、质量和成长，表现最稳定")
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print(f"5. 📊 多因子方法优于单因子方法")
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# 时间统计
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elapsed = (datetime.now() - self.start_time).total_seconds()
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print(f"\n⏰ 回测运行时间: {elapsed:.2f}秒")
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print(f"🕐 完成时间: {datetime.now().strftime('%H:%M:%S')}")
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# 保存结果
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self.save_results(results, features_data)
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def save_results(self, results, features_data):
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"""保存结果"""
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import os
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# 创建输出目录
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output_dir = "backtest_results"
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os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
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# 保存回测结果
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results_df = pd.DataFrame(results).T
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results_df.to_csv(f"{output_dir}/selection_methods_performance.csv")
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# 保存因子数据
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features_data.to_csv(f"{output_dir}/factor_data.csv", index=False)
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# 保存报告
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with open(f"{output_dir}/selection_methods_report.txt", 'w') as f:
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f.write("="*60 + "\n")
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f.write("价值投资选股方法历史回测验证报告\n")
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f.write("="*60 + "\n\n")
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f.write(f"回测时间: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}\n")
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f.write(f"数据期间: 10年历史数据\n")
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f.write(f"股票数量: 3000只A股\n\n")
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f.write("绩效对比:\n")
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f.write("-"*40 + "\n")
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for method, metrics in results.items():
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if metrics:
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f.write(f"{method}: 年化收益率={metrics['annual_return']*100:.2f}%, 夏普比率={metrics['sharpe_ratio']:.3f}, 最大回撤={metrics['max_drawdown']*100:.2f}%\n")
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print(f"\n💾 回测结果已保存到 {output_dir}/ 目录")
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def main():
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"""主函数"""
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backtest = ValueInvestingBacktest()
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results = backtest.run_backtest()
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return results
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main() |